Another Gamescom has passed this August.
The industry fair had a lot to show and produced a lot of things to discuss. I’d like to take the time to breakdown my biggest takeaways.
Xbox’s Not-So eXclusive Fiasco
Xbox made waves with a recent revelation during the Gamescom ONL presentation. Despite past commitments to keep Indiana Jones and The Great Circle an Xbox exclusive, the AAA adventure game is now confirmed to be coming to Playstation 5 in Spring 2025. The announcement has been met with significant backlash from core Xbox fans who are uncertain about what Xbox chief Phil Spencer’s actual game plan is. Average consumers and analysts seem to not be certain either, other than the fact it seems there is a greater focus on recouping expenses after the company’s four-year spending spree on acquisitions.
If Microsoft’s goal is indeed to recoup costs after spending $76 billion on major acquisitions for Bethesda and Activision, they may face roadblocks for that endgame. In particular, the most significant roadblock will be in retaining existing users in their ecosystem. These users, like any consumer expect assurances that they are getting something out of their purchase. According to them, that is not presently happening and turning the Xbox into a lost cause. It is why some have already started signaling they will switch over to PC or Playstation whenever the tenth generation rolls around.
For more analysis of Xbox’s strategic issues, you can read my in-depth analysis here.
2K25 May Belong to 2K
Xbox was not the only company that made some waves at the Gamescom ONL presentation. 2K made some more positive waves than Xbox did with so much goodwill being felt on social media.
At the presentation, 2K was able to reveal Borderlands 4, Mafia: The Old Country, and Civilization VII. All three titles are scheduled to join a release slate that includes Rockstar Games’ highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI in 2025.
If all goes well, it can be forecasted that 2K will have a very profitable year in 2025. The year was already looking to be a very strong year for 2K with just Grand Theft Auto VI, which analysts previously speculated could sell around 25 million copies in its initial launch window. This would surpass 2013’s Grand Theft Auto V which sold 11 million copies in its initial launch window eleven years ago. Similar positive analyses have been made about what Gearbox can contribute to 2K with Wedbush’s Michael Pachter speculating Gearbox Software’s Borderlands could add around $150-400 million in revenue over the next few years.
In either case, 2025 is going to likely belong to 2K. It will be the main publisher that is worth watching next year. They may very well commercially and critically dominate it, compared to its many competitors who are also scheduled to release major entries in their popular franchises such as Call of Duty.
Sony and Nintendo’s Furthers The Disconnect
One of the biggest drawbacks at Gamescom was Nintendo and Sony both being absent.
Though it is not unprecedented for both companies to skip trade shows, I still think it is a big loss for the industry. There is just no charming sense of competition to add to the excitement of having showcases for new and upcoming titles. It is what makes something like Gamescom something people should be excited about, just as they formerly were with the late Electronic Entertainment Expo. When both Sony and Nintendo decided to abandon E3 for their own independent showcases, the June trade show began to gradually lose all of its appeal. It’d continue to see that appeal dwindle and dwindle further until the Entertainment Software Association finally pulled the plug on the trade show in late 2023.
There is a lot of room for speculation as to why both companies abandoned Gamescom. The leading two theories have been the allure of independent showcases and in Sony’s case, they may not have had a significant slate of games to show quite yet. There is credence to this theory with Playstation deciding to not release any major AAA exclusives this year. Past reports have added that this has been because many of Sony’s planned Playstation exclusive AAA titles are still some years out from launch. Understandably, it would not make sense to come to a trade show if you have nothing to offer anyone that they have not seen already?
Moreover, Sony and Nintendo both seem to still be committed to independent showcases that they have hosted in lieu of Gamescom for the past five years. It is understandable why these independent showcases are much more appealing to both of them and the games industry more broadly. From a business a perspective, these showcases provide so much more control for Sony and Nintendo who can host them whenever they want. They do not have to worry about competing for the public’s attention as they would at E3 or Gamescom, where they previously spent millions of dollars to set up presentation booths.
However, I still think it is a mistake that has continued to create an ongoing disconnect from consumers in the market. Many of these consumers do go to things like Gamescom because it gives them a real opportunity to interact with developers, learn more about upcoming titles in a more interpersonal environment, and experience some of the healthy competition. All of that is desperately needed within this industry as it continues to change and become somewhat non-responsive towards consumer attitudes. It is why I will always give endless credit to Xbox for continuing to show up and have that sort of engagement, which is always for the better.
When I think about this Gamescom, I think about it in the same way I did with every passing E3. I think about it as more than just a look at what is coming out today. It is a look into the future of the games industry and where it is going to be headed in the next year, five years, and beyond. There are definitely some things that I cannot say I approve of and do make me anxious about how pro-consumer or anti-consumer things are going to become. However, there are also a lot of positive things that I see coming with sone major new releases scheduled for the rest of 2024 and all of 2025. There are also likely many more new reveals that we’ve yet to see, including for Mafia: The Old Country which 2K will have more information on this December, possibly at the 2024 Game Awards. I cannot wait to see that and so much else!